Do Consumer Expenditures Affect the Demand for Driving?
We examine why American driving fell between 2004 and 2014, and consider how planners should respond. We weigh two competing explanations: that the driving downturn was caused by “Peak Car”— a voluntary shift away from driving, and that it was caused by economic hardship. We analyze an array of aggregate data on travel, incomes, debt, public opinion and Internet access. These data are imperfect, as they lack the precision of microdata, but they are available annually for the years before during, and after driving’s decline. We find little evidence supporting Peak Car.